📊 Recent Form
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. Chicago Fire edge it at 41% against 29% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Chicago Fire at 41% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 51% — a gap against us of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Chicago Fire came from behind to beat New York City FC 2-1 in a match that swung decisively on a red card in the first half. Wolf gave City the lead early on with a finish from Ojeda's assist, but the game turned when D'Avilla was sent off for the Fire in the 43rd minute. Down to ten men, Chicago still found a way back into it—Saletros levelled just after the hour mark with help from Haile-Selassie, and the winger herself sealed it in the 87th minute to secure a hard-fought win.
Our model had predicted a 2-1 Chicago victory as its leanest call of the three outcomes, at 41% confidence. That's a lean among plausible results rather than a strong conviction, so while we nailed both the scoreline and the result direction, the match stayed well within the range of outcomes we'd flagged as live. The pre-match numbers suggested New York City had a marginal expected-goals edge, yet Chicago's ability to turn a numerical disadvantage into three points shows why football doesn't play out on paper. Playing the last half-hour with a man down and still finding the energy to score twice speaks to the Fire's character, even if it wasn't the path our model had sketched out beforehand.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire Win | 4/5 1.81 | 51% | 41% | -10% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.90 | 25% | 29% | +4% |
| New York City FC Win Value | 3/1 3.90 | 24% | 30% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: New York City FC (13d) vs Chicago Fire (3d) — New York City FC significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Chicago Fire xG 1.38 | New York City FC xG 1.64
Projected: 36% / 32% / 32%
H2H: 0W-3D-5L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
0W-3D-5L for Chicago Fire in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
