📊 Recent Form
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Dundee Utd edge it at 39% against 31% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Dundee Utd. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Dundee Utd at 39% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 43% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Dundee Utd turned in a strong second-half performance to edge Aberdeen 3-2 in a match that unfolded well clear of our pre-match expectations. Iqbal opened the scoring in the 14th minute with an assist from Tait, but Aberdeen levelled through Nesta Guinness-Walker just eleven minutes later, set up by Kevin Nisbet. Tait then put Dundee back in front in the 27th minute with help from Ciubotaru, giving the home side a slender advantage at the break. Aberdeen drew level again in the 56th minute when Connor Patrick Ronan finished after a Lewis Smith assist, setting up a tense finale. The decisive moment came in the 72nd minute when Sapsford restored Dundee's lead with another assist from Tait, and the hosts held firm to claim the win.
Our model predicted a 1-1 draw with Dundee Utd given just a 39% chance of victory. The forecast leaned toward a cagey affair based on Aberdeen's solid away form and a strong run of draws in their recent head-to-head record, along with Dundee's mixed home results. Instead we got an open game with five goals, both sides finding the net as expected but well above the low-scoring template we'd flagged. The match didn't follow the script—it was tighter and more dynamic than the data suggested—so this one sits firmly in the camp of outcomes our model didn't back heavily enough.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd Win | 6/5 2.16 | 43% | 39% | -4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 31% | +4% |
| Aberdeen Win | 2/1 3.07 | 30% | 30% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Dundee Utd inconsistent at home (WDLLD), Aberdeen solid away (WDWDL) with better scoring avg (1.6 vs 1.36). H2H: 3 draws in last 8, two most recent home meetings ended 0-0 and 2-0 (Aberdeen). Stakes: Both teams mid-table, normal motivation — leans toward draw per prediction rules. Betting: BTTS supported by both teams' ability to score in recent meetings; Under 2.5 favoured given tight H2H avg (1.9 goals/game) and low-scoring home form.
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Neutral H2H dominance with 3 Dundee Utd wins, 3 draws, 2 Aberdeen wins in last 8; recent meetings trend low-scoring with 1-1 and 0-0 in the last two Tannadice encounters, though Aberdeen won 2-0 away in May 2026.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
