📊 Recent Form
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. FC Dallas edge it at 42% against 30% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have FC Dallas at 42% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 54% — a gap against us of 12 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
FC Dallas swept past San Jose with a dominant 3-0 victory that proved far more convincing than our pre-match forecast suggested. Our model had backed Dallas to win but predicted a tighter 2-1 scoreline, giving the home side a 42% chance heading into the match. The actual result was sharper and more comfortable.
The goals came late but in quick succession. Petar Musa broke the deadlock in the 83rd minute with a finish from Bernard Kamungo's assist, then doubled his tally from the penalty spot five minutes later. Santiago Moreno wrapped things up deep into stoppage time, set up by Ramiro, to seal a convincing night. Before kickoff, we'd flagged Dallas's strong home form and San Jose's draw-heavy away record, along with a fixture history that tends to produce goals at both ends. The match played out in line with that expectation — both sides were up for it, but Dallas's quality and motivation told when it mattered most.
Our model got the result direction right but underestimated the final margin. We'd weighted a higher probability on draws and a closer scoreline, which reflects how these two sides have mixed it in the past. On the night, though, Dallas were sharper in the final stages and San Jose couldn't find a way through, leaving the Earthquakes with nothing to show for the effort. It's a solid reminder that even strong form signals don't always predict the exact shape of the game.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas Win | 4/5 1.77 | 54% | 42% | -12% |
| Draw Value | 10/3 4.18 | 23% | 30% | +7% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win Value | 3/1 4.03 | 23% | 28% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 FC Dallas chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: FC Dallas strong at home (WWDWW, avg 1.8 scored); San Jose draw-heavy away (DDWDD, avg 1.54 scored)
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3.6 goals/game, draw-prone overall but goals flow freely in both directions
Stakes: FC Dallas pushing for top-2 from P3 — clear motivation boost; San Jose in P4 with less urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings split evenly (2W-4D-2W) but consistently high-scoring; 4 of last 5 H2H games produced 4+ total goals including a 4-2 and 3-2, confirming both defences are permeable in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
