📊 Recent Form
FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes FC Dallas a 64% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have FC Dallas at 64% where the consensus of 5 bookmakers has 67% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
FC Dallas pulled off a comeback to edge Sporting Kansas City 4-3 in a chaotic encounter that bore little resemblance to our pre-match forecast. Sporting got off to a flying start with Taylor Calheira and Stephen Afrifa both finding the net in the opening quarter-hour, but Dallas clawed back rapidly. Logan Farrington's finish in the 27th minute sparked a run of three goals in quick succession: Petar Musa made it 2-2 just three minutes later, then Farrington turned provider for Kaick da Silva Ferreira to edge Dallas ahead at the break. Calheira added his second in the 78th, leveling things up again, but Musa converted a penalty deep into added time, and Samuel Sarver's assist for Santiago Moreno's stoppage-time finish sealed a breathless win that took the match to seven goals.
Our model backed Dallas to take the three points at 64% probability, so we got the direction right—but we couldn't have been further off on the scoreline. We'd predicted 2-0, built on an expected goal model favoring Dallas and betting-line assumptions around a clean sheet and low-scoring affair. What actually unfolded was a wide-open, goal-heavy match that short-circuited those assumptions entirely. Sporting started at pace and forced Dallas to dig deeper than anticipated; the defense wasn't as watertight as the pre-match shape suggested. The model had weighted a narrow Dallas win, and it got one, but the road there was far messier and more entertaining than expected. Both sides found the net multiple times and left absolutely everything on the pitch.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 5 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas Win | 2/5 1.40 | 67% | 64% | -3% |
| Draw | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 19% | ±0% |
| Sporting Kansas City Win | 11/2 6.55 | 14% | 17% | +3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 FC Dallas in European race (P5)
- 🆘 Sporting Kansas City in relegation danger (P15/15)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: FC Dallas xG 2.8 | Sporting Kansas City xG 0.65
Projected: 74% / 15% / 11%
H2H: 5W-0D-3L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
5W-0D-3L for FC Dallas in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
