📊 Recent Form
Hibernian
Celtic
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Celtic at 53%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 18% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Celtic at 53% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 58% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 73/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Celtic came away from Easter Road with a 2-1 win in a match that stayed true to the script our model had sketched out beforehand. Hibernian struck first through Owen Elding in the third minute, assisted by Joe Newell, but Celtic's response was swift and chaotic—Jason Kerr turned the ball into his own net five minutes later to level things up. The visitors then took the lead before the break when Camilo Duran scored in the 43rd minute, a cushion they held through to the final whistle.
Our model had backed a 1-2 Celtic victory at 53% probability, so while this wasn't the likeliest outcome in isolation, it was well-flagged as a plausible one. The key pre-match factors pointed this way: Celtic's attacking threat despite coming off just two days' rest, Hibernian's defensive vulnerabilities at home, and the historical pattern of this exact scoreline appearing in recent meetings between the sides. The match unfolded broadly in line with those expectations—Hibernian showed early intensity born from relegation pressure, but Celtic's quality ultimately shone through despite fatigue, even if an own goal helped smooth their path.
The result lands neatly within the range our model identified, and the storyline of a fading visitor holding on after a frantic opening offers the kind of credible football narrative that sits behind good predictions rather than lucky guesses. Celtic take the three points and stay in the title conversation; Hibernian remain in a tough spot.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian Win Value | 7/2 4.60 | 20% | 29% | +9% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.25 | 22% | 18% | -4% |
| Celtic Win | 8/13 1.62 | 58% | 53% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Hibernian in relegation danger (P12/12)
- 🏆 Celtic in title race (P1)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Hibernian (7d) vs Celtic (2d) — Hibernian significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Hibernian averaging 1.08 goals scored at home with a 20% win rate; Celtic averaging 2.28 goals scored but with severe fatigue (2 days rest) dampening output by ~10-15%. H2H: Celtic dominant overall (5W-1D-2L) with 1-2 appearing twice in recent meetings — this exact scoreline is the most historically recurrent result. Stakes: Hibernian fighting relegation adds a meaningful motivation boost; Celtic chasing the title keeps them focused despite fatigue. Betting: Bookmakers imply 62% Celtic win — a 1-2 Celtic win aligns comfortably with that implied probability without over-extrapolating.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Five of the last eight H2H meetings have ended with an away win, and the 1-2 scoreline has appeared twice in the last five encounters. Celtic lead the series 5-1-2 with an average of 2.6 goals per game, suggesting a competitive but moderate-scoring fixture is likely.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
