📊 Recent Form
Hibernian
Falkirk
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Hibernian edge it at 44% against 26% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Hibernian at 44% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 57% — a gap against us of 13 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Falkirk came away from Easter Road with a crucial 2-1 win, with Jacob Murrell's brace putting the visitors in control before Hibernian pulled one back late in the first half. Murrell struck twice in quick succession—first in the 13th minute with an assist from Ryan Strain, then again at the 37-minute mark, this time set up by Ethan Ross. Hibernian got a goal back through Owen Elding in the 41st minute, courtesy of Felix Passlack's assist, but it wasn't enough to deny Falkirk the three points.
Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline and flagged both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, which the match delivered. However, we got the winner wrong—we leaned toward Hibernian (44% to 30%), so while we nailed the exact score and the pattern of play, Falkirk's away-day threat proved more decisive than the model weighted it. Before kickoff, the form suggested Hibernian's poor home run against Falkirk's steadier road record would favour the home side, but Falkirk's proven big-game threat in the head-to-head came through when it mattered. The visitors' clinical finishing, especially Murrell's double, made the difference on a night where both sides had genuine stakes in the fight.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian Win | 8/13 1.62 | 57% | 44% | -13% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.96 | 24% | 26% | +2% |
| Falkirk Win Value | 4/1 4.90 | 19% | 30% | +11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Hibernian in relegation danger (P10, only 0 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Falkirk in relegation danger (P11/12)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Hibernian home form is poor (DLLLW), Falkirk away form steady (DDLDD) with consistent scoring
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3.1 goals, Falkirk won 4-1 in Jan 2026 showing big-game threat
Stakes: Both in relegation danger — Falkirk (P11) have slightly more urgency needing points on the road
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring H2H averaging 3.1 goals across last 8 meetings, with Falkirk capable of big wins (4-1 in Jan 2026) and Hibernian capable of clean sheets (3-0 in Dec 2025) — outcomes tend to be decisive rather than low-scoring.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
