Instituto Cordoba came from a red-card-thinned Talleres side to win 3-1 at home, but it wasn't the tightly wound affair our model had pencilled in. Cerato opened the scoring in the 50th minute, assisted by Abregu, and then Alarcon doubled Instituto's lead eight minutes later off a Luna pass. Talleres had already lost a man to a red card just before half-time when Alvarez was sent off, and though Maidana pulled one back for them in the 66th through Catalan's assist, Instituto effectively sealed it when Unsain put through his own net in the 80th. A comfortable win on the night, then, but one that diverged sharply from the script we'd laid out.

Before kickoff, our model leaned towards a 1-0 Instituto win—the result direction turned out right, but we'd plainly underestimated how much daylight there'd be between the sides once the match got going. The model gave Instituto a 45% chance, which meant we saw them as the favourite but not by a huge margin; Talleres' poor away form and overall shape pointed to vulnerability, but their draw-heavy head-to-head record and the general low-scoring nature of these meetings meant we expected a cagey game. The red card in the first-half stoppage changed the texture entirely, and from there Instituto's home comfort showed in open play.

What actually unfolded was a much more convincing performance than our lean had suggested. Instituto exploited their numerical advantage and Talleres' travel troubles, and the kind of tight, grinding match the numbers had warned us to expect simply didn't materialise. Sometimes that's just how football goes—the underlying shape of a fixture can flip once a team loses a player early, and a mid-table side with low stakes to play for can still turn in a clinical afternoon when the chance presents itself.