Instituto Cordoba pulled off a 1-0 upset at Lanus, striking deep into stoppage time through Alarcon, who was set up by Lodico in the 90+2nd minute. It wasn't the script our model had written. We'd backed Lanus heavily—56% to win, with a predicted 2-0 scoreline—leaning on their strong home form and Instituto's inconsistency on the road. The away side carried just an 18% win probability into kickoff, making this a real curveball.

The model had weighted the narrative pretty firmly in Lanus's favour: a side pushing for league position at home against a mid-table opponent with little to play for. Instituto's recent away record looked shaky, and the head-to-head history tilted toward the designated home side as well. All of that pointed toward a comfortable Lanus win. Instead, Instituto kept it tight, stayed compact, and found their moment when it mattered most—right at the death. That's football: sometimes the underdog leans hold up, sometimes they don't.

We got this one wrong, plain and simple. The result fell well outside what our model expected, and while a late goal is always a bit of a lottery, it's a reminder that even strong form and fixture advantage don't guarantee outcomes. Instituto showed enough resilience to nick it, and Lanus, despite the territorial and tactical advantage, couldn't finish the job when it counted.