FC Dallas held their nerve on the road to beat Minnesota United 2-1 in a match that unfolded almost exactly as our model had predicted. Kaick da Silva Ferreira opened the scoring for Dallas in the 62nd minute, assisted by Joaquín Valiente Cioli, but Minnesota pulled level through Kelvin Yeboah eleven minutes later. Dallas sealed it late when Santiago Moreno converted in the 84th minute, set up by Samuel Sarver, to secure three points in a tight contest.

Our prediction of a 1-2 scoreline landed spot-on, though it's worth noting the model had assigned Dallas just a 36% win probability going in — essentially a lean among plausible outcomes rather than a confident call. The pre-match setup favoured Dallas: they've shown solid form on their travels with a strong record away from home, while Minnesota came into this carrying the pressure of a relegation battle. That desperation can cut both ways, but Dallas's discipline and European ambitions proved the difference. The match played out much as expected — goals at both ends, enough quality from each side to trouble the other, but ultimately the better-organised visiting team got over the line.

For Minnesota, it's a frustrating result given their need for points. For Dallas, it's another scalp in their push for honours. Our model read the game's texture correctly before kickoff, and the result bears that out cleanly.