📊 Recent Form
New York City FC
New England Revolution
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. New York City FC edge it at 40% against 33% for the draw and 27% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour New York City FC. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have New York City FC at 40% where the consensus of 5 bookmakers has 44% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
New England Revolution grabbed a hard-fought victory over New York City FC on the road, winning 2-1 in a match that unfolded in tight, low-scoring fashion. Carles Gil opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 12th minute, giving the Revs an early advantage. NYCFC pulled level through Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos in the 71st minute, with Nicolás Fernández Mercau providing the assist, but it wasn't enough to secure a result. Dániel Gazdag settled it late, smashing home in the 90+3rd minute after a setup from Ilay Feingold to seal three points for New England.
Our model predicted a 1-1 draw with New England valued at just 27% to win outright. The Revolution's victory was the least likely outcome in our three-way split, so we got the result direction wrong. What shaped that lean towards a stalemate? The fixture has a strong history of draws, both teams sat mid-table with limited high-pressure stakes, and NYCFC's recent form had been patchy. The Revs' away form also looked hit-and-miss. A 1-1 seemed like the most natural resting point between two sides that weren't quite firing. The actual match did stay compact and low-scoring as expected, but New England found the extra bit of quality late on when it mattered most, turning what looked like a point into three.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 5 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC Win | 11/10 2.10 | 44% | 40% | -4% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 33% | +7% |
| New England Revolution Win | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 27% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: NYCFC in poor form with 5 losses in last 10, avg only 1.17 goals scored; NE Revolution averaging 1.99 goals but inconsistent away
H2H: 4 draws in last 8, most recent match was 1-1, fixture is classically low-scoring at 1.8 avg goals
Stakes: Both teams appear mid-table in MLS 2026, limited high-pressure motivation — neutral stakes lean toward draw
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Extremely draw-prone fixture with 4 draws in last 8 meetings; the most recent head-to-head ended 1-1 and the historical average of 1.8 goals per game strongly suggests a tight, low-scoring encounter.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.