📊 Recent Form
Real Salt Lake
New York City FC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Real Salt Lake edge it at 42% against 30% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Real Salt Lake at 42% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 48% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake Win | 10/11 1.95 | 48% | 42% | -6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 26% | 30% | +4% |
| New York City FC Win | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 28% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Real Salt Lake in relegation danger (P10, only 2 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: RSL struggling overall (20% win rate) but stronger at home (DLDWW); NYCFC in poor away form (DDLL, 10% win rate)
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3.8 goals/game; recent meetings include two 2-2 draws in Jan 2025
Stakes: RSL in relegation danger with only 2pt cushion — strong home motivation; NYCFC playing with no pressure
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Recent H2H is high-scoring and competitive — two 2-2 draws in Jan 2025, a 6-0 NYCFC demolition in 2022, and a 3-1 RSL win in 2019. Averaging 3.8 goals per game, this fixture has a strong tendency to produce goals from both sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
