Packers at Buccaneers
Result & Grading
Published before kickoff, graded after. No edits, no quiet deletions.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
From the engine's power ratings, adjusted for home field and rest, then mapped through the margin distribution. Not a blend of the market — this is our own number.
Engine vs The Line
We agree with the market on the winner. The margins may still differ.
Matchup Facts
Venue and rest come from the schedule feed and feed directly into the model; surface and weather are context we show but don't yet model.
Recent Form
Last five completed games this season, most recent first.
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Season Scoring
Points per game either side of the ball, 2026 season to date.
How The Model Sees It
Our rating has Green Bay Packers as the stronger side by 41 rating points, which on its own is worth about 1.6 points on the scoreboard (GB 1,445, TB 1,404).
Home field adds 1.4 points to TB — a measured figure from our backtest, not the traditional three, because home advantage in the modern NFL is considerably smaller than it used to be. Rest shifts it a further -0.3 points (GB 10 days, TB 7).
That lands on a projected margin of -0.5, and running that through the historical spread of actual results against projections gives Green Bay Packers at 52%.
The closing line agrees on the winner, making Green Bay Packers favourite by 3.5 against our 0.5.
More From Week 4
Next Up Elsewhere
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Recently Graded
Called before kickoff, scored after — hits and misses both.
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