NFL · Week 1
NEXT KICKOFF
Kickoff in—:—:—
San Francisco
49ers
NFC
44%
@
Los Angeles
Rams
NFC
56%
Los Angeles Rams to win56% win probability · Total 48.9 · Lean
64%Backtested accuracy·Walk-forward over 1,139 games (2022–25).
Recent Results
Graded in public — misses included
Road to SoFi
Super Bowl LXI · 14 February 2027 · SoFi Stadium
Engine Power Ratings
Every team carries a single rating that moves after each game — margin of victory, opponent quality, home field and rest all folded in. It is the number every prediction on this site is built from.
Read this first: ratings currently reflect 2025 results only, regressed toward the mean. No draft, no free agency, no trades, no injuries. They describe last season, not a forecast of this one — that changes once games are played.
Top rated right now
1
Seattle Seahawks
1,697
Seattle Seahawks
1,697
2
Denver Broncos
1,623
Denver Broncos
1,623
3
Houston Texans
1,617
Houston Texans
1,617
4
New England Patriots
1,616
New England Patriots
1,616
5
Los Angeles Rams
1,615
Los Angeles Rams
1,615
Where We Break From The Line
Our engine disagrees on 6 games
The closing line is very hard to beat, and we do not pretend otherwise — across 1,139 backtested games our disagreements were right 41% of the time. We publish them anyway, and we publish the record. That is the point.
Upcoming Predictions
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ATL
@
PIT
ATL 41%PIT 59%
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
59%Total 44.9Lean
LinePIT −3.5
BAL
@
IND
BAL 55%IND 45%
Baltimore Ravens to win
55%Total 48.7Lean
LineBAL −3.5
BUF
@
HOU
BUF 45%HOU 55%
Houston Texans to win
55%Total 45.8Lean
LineBUF −1.5We differ
CHI
@
CAR
CHI 59%CAR 41%
Chicago Bears to win
59%Total 45.7Lean
LineCHI −3.0
CLE
@
JAX
CLE 27%JAX 73%
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
73%Total 44.4Strong
LineJAX −8.5
NO
@
DET
NO 33%DET 67%
Detroit Lions to win
67%Total 46.4Solid
LineDET −7.0
Deterministic engine · every pick carries a confidence tier · scored in public, every miss counted