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NFL · Week 14 · 2026 Upcoming Division game

Rams at 49ers

Sun, 13 Dec 2026 · 21:25 UTC
Los Angeles Rams logo
Los Angeles
Rams
3-4 · W3
@
San Francisco 49ers logo
San Francisco
49ers
6-1 · L1
San Francisco 49ers to win 61% win probability · projected 23–27 · Solid

Win Probabilities

From the engine's power ratings, adjusted for home field and rest, then mapped through the margin distribution. Not a blend of the market — this is our own number.

LAR 39%
SF 61%
Projected score
23–27
LAR at SF
Projected margin
+3.6
home perspective
Projected total
49.9
combined points
Confidence
Solid
published before kickoff

Matchup Facts

Venue and rest come from the schedule feed and feed directly into the model; surface and weather are context we show but don't yet model.

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof
Outdoors
Surface
Grass
Rest · LAR
10 days
Rest · SF
7 days

Recent Form

Last five completed games this season, most recent first.

Los Angeles Rams

W @ LV 35–21
L vs ARI 16–18
L vs BUF 34–37
W @ PHI 24–20
L @ DEN 26–30

San Francisco 49ers

L @ ATL 20–29
W vs WAS 23–17
W @ SEA 32–29
W vs DEN 24–14
W vs ARI 36–30

Season Scoring

Points per game either side of the ball, 2026 season to date.

LAR · scored
24.3
per game · 7 played
LAR · allowed
22.7
per game
SF · scored
28.1
per game · 7 played
SF · allowed
19.9
per game

How The Model Sees It

Our rating has San Francisco 49ers as the stronger side by 62 rating points, which on its own is worth about 2.5 points on the scoreboard (LAR 1,574, SF 1,635).

Home field adds 1.4 points to SF — a measured figure from our backtest, not the traditional three, because home advantage in the modern NFL is considerably smaller than it used to be. Rest shifts it a further -0.3 points (LAR 10 days, SF 7).

That lands on a projected margin of +3.6, and running that through the historical spread of actual results against projections gives San Francisco 49ers at 61%.

No betting line has been posted for this game yet — books typically price about three weeks ahead. Until one appears, this page shows the engine's number with nothing to compare it against, which is exactly the situation the model is most useful in.

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