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NFL · Week 17 · 2026 Upcoming

Steelers at Titans

Sun, 3 Jan 2027 · 18:00 UTC
Pittsburgh Steelers logo
Pittsburgh
Steelers
5-2 · W5
@
Tennessee Titans logo
Tennessee
Titans
1-6 · L6
Pittsburgh Steelers to win 76% win probability · projected 27–17 · Strong

Win Probabilities

From the engine's power ratings, adjusted for home field and rest, then mapped through the margin distribution. Not a blend of the market — this is our own number.

PIT 76%
TEN 24%
Projected score
27–17
PIT at TEN
Projected margin
-9.3
home perspective
Projected total
43.8
combined points
Confidence
Strong
published before kickoff

Matchup Facts

Venue and rest come from the schedule feed and feed directly into the model; surface and weather are context we show but don't yet model.

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof
Outdoors
Surface
Grass
Rest · PIT
7 days
Rest · TEN
7 days

Recent Form

Last five completed games this season, most recent first.

Pittsburgh Steelers

W @ NO 16–10
W @ TB 26–19
W vs IND 34–22
L @ CLE 24–27
W vs CIN 30–27

Tennessee Titans

L vs CLE 24–27
W @ IND 26–20
L vs HOU 3–26
L @ BAL 18–24
L @ NYG 7–12

Season Scoring

Points per game either side of the ball, 2026 season to date.

PIT · scored
21.9
per game · 7 played
PIT · allowed
19.7
per game
TEN · scored
15.4
per game · 7 played
TEN · allowed
22.3
per game

How The Model Sees It

Our rating has Pittsburgh Steelers as the stronger side by 268 rating points, which on its own is worth about 10.7 points on the scoreboard (PIT 1,564, TEN 1,297).

Home field adds 1.4 points to TEN — a measured figure from our backtest, not the traditional three, because home advantage in the modern NFL is considerably smaller than it used to be.

That lands on a projected margin of -9.3, and running that through the historical spread of actual results against projections gives Pittsburgh Steelers at 76%.

No betting line has been posted for this game yet — books typically price about three weeks ahead. Until one appears, this page shows the engine's number with nothing to compare it against, which is exactly the situation the model is most useful in.

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