Buffalo Bills Predictions 2026 — Every Game Called

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Week 8 · Sun 1 Nov

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Our call

74%

Strong · we favour Bills

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2026 Engine Projection

Built from our own call on every game of the season — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced.

Projected wins

12.5

of 17 games · 6 already played

Power rating

1,662

2nd of 32 · league average 1500

Schedule strength

1,501

16th toughest of 32 · mean opponent rating

2026 record

5–1

32.8 scored, 28.5 allowed per game

What the projection is. Adding up a win probability for every game gives an expected total, not a forecast of an exact record. A club projected at 12.5 wins lands anywhere from roughly 9 to 16 in a real season — seventeen games is a small sample and luck moves it several wins either way.

Engine Verdict

Every axis is a percentile against the other 31 clubs, computed at page load.

B+

Overall

Bills · 75th percentile

Rating

Elite

Offence

Elite

Defence

Weak

Record

Elite

Schedule ease

Average

Biggest strength

Offence — rated elite against the other 31.

Watch

Defence — their lowest-graded department.

Buffalo Bills rate 1,662 on the engine's scale, 2nd of 32. The league average is 1500 and 25 points equal about one point of expected margin, so the gap to an average club is worth roughly 6.5 points on neutral ground.

In 2026 they scored 32.8 a game (1st in the league) and allowed 28.5 (30th), finishing 5-1.

Their 17 opponents average 1,501, the 16th toughest schedule in the league. Strength of schedule is a fact about the fixture list rather than a forecast, so unlike most preseason numbers it is knowable today.

Adding up our win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 12.5 wins. That is an average across many simulated seasons, not a forecast of an exact record — a club projected at 12.5 finishes anywhere from about 9 to 16 in a real one.

Axes come from the power rating, points scored and allowed per game, last season's record and the mean rating of everyone on the schedule. Play-by-play measures — pressure rate, EPA, red-zone efficiency, line play — are not shown because this site does not store them, and a grade with nothing behind it would devalue the four that are real.

AFC East Race

Where this club sits against the three teams it plays twice a year.

Club	Rating	Lg rank	2026	Proj
Bills	1,662	#2	5–1	12.5
Patriots	1,606	#7	4–3	—
Dolphins	1,365	#29	1–5	—
Jets	1,350	#31	2–5	—

2026 Schedule & Predictions

Every game on the schedule with our call — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced yet. Predictions refresh weekly as ratings move, so a Week 15 call made today will look different by December. Bye weeks are shown where they fall.

Wk	Opponent	Our pick	Prob	Proj	Result
1	@ Texans	Loss	45%	-1.7	36–31 ✗
2	vs Lions	Win	64%	+4.7	41–31 ✓
3	vs Chargers	Win	80%	+10.8	24–16 ✓
4	vs Patriots	Win	64%	+4.5	26–29 ✗
5	@ Rams	Win	51%	+0.4	37–34 ✓
6	@ Raiders	Win	72%	+7.7	33–30 ✓
7	Bye week
8	vs Ravens	Win	74%	+8.4	—
9	@ Vikings	Loss	47%	-1.0	—
10	@ Jets	Win	80%	+11.0	—
11	vs Dolphins	Win	85%	+13.3	—
12	vs Chiefs	Win	66%	+5.4	—
13	@ Patriots	Win	54%	+1.1	—
14	@ Packers	Win	63%	+4.3	—
15	vs Bears	Win	63%	+4.4	—
16	@ Broncos	Loss	49%	-0.2	—
17	@ Dolphins	Win	79%	+10.7	—
18	vs Jets	Win	86%	+13.9	—

Where We Differ From the Market

The closing line is the sharpest public number in sport. Ours is unblended and stands on its own, so the honest thing is to show where the two disagree and what happened last time they did. Books price about a week ahead, so most of this schedule has no line yet and this section fills out as the season runs.

Games with a line

7

of 17 on the schedule

We disagree on

2

of the 7 priced so far · too few for a percentage

Our disagreements lose more than they win. Across 1,139 backtested games, when the engine picked a different side to the closing line it was right 41% of the time — worse than a coin toss. We publish the disagreements anyway, and we publish that record, because presenting them as edge would be selling you the opposite of what the data says. Where we agree with the line, expect the market's accuracy rather than ours.

About This Rating

Buffalo Bills currently rate 1,662, 2nd of 32. The league average is 1500, and 25 rating points equal roughly one point of expected margin — so the gap between this club and an average one is worth about 6.5 points on neutral ground.

See the full power rankings →