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2026 Engine Projection
Built from our own call on every game of the season — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced.
Why it does not match the table below. The schedule shows an outright call on every game, and on that basis we pick Bills to win 13. The projection is higher because 4 of their games sit between 40% and 49% — near-coin-flips that show as a loss in a yes-or-no column but still contribute most of a win each to the expectation. The projection counts those fractions; the table cannot. Ratings currently come from 2025 results regressed toward the mean, with no adjustment for the draft, free agency, trades or injuries.
Engine Verdict
Every axis is a percentile against the other 31 clubs, computed at page load.
Buffalo Bills rate 1,608 on the engine's scale, 6th of 32. The league average is 1500 and 25 points equal about one point of expected margin, so the gap to an average club is worth roughly 4.3 points on neutral ground.
In 2025 they scored 28.3 a game (4th in the league) and allowed 21.5 (12th), finishing 12-5.
Their 17 opponents average 1,512, the 9th toughest schedule in the league. Strength of schedule is a fact about the fixture list rather than a forecast, so unlike most preseason numbers it is knowable today.
Adding up our win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 10.4 wins. That is an average across many simulated seasons, not a forecast of an exact record — a club projected at 10.4 finishes anywhere from about 7 to 14 in a real one.
Axes come from the power rating, points scored and allowed per game, last season's record and the mean rating of everyone on the schedule. Play-by-play measures — pressure rate, EPA, red-zone efficiency, line play — are not shown because this site does not store them, and a grade with nothing behind it would devalue the four that are real.
AFC East Race
Where this club sits against the three teams it plays twice a year.
2026 Schedule & Predictions
Every game on the schedule with our call — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced yet. Predictions refresh weekly as ratings move, so a Week 15 call made today will look different by December. Bye weeks are shown where they fall.
| Wk | Opponent | Our pick | Result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
@
 Texans
|
Loss | — | ||
| 2 |
vs
 Lions
|
Win | — | ||
| 3 |
vs
 Chargers
|
Win | — | ||
| 4 |
vs
 Patriots
|
Win | — | ||
| 5 |
@
 Rams
|
Loss | — | ||
| 6 |
@
 Raiders
|
Win | — | ||
| 7 | Bye week | ||||
| 8 |
vs
 Ravens
|
Win | — | ||
| 9 |
@
 Vikings
|
Win | — | ||
| 10 |
@
 Jets
|
Win | — | ||
| 11 |
vs
 Dolphins
|
Win | — | ||
| 12 |
vs
 Chiefs
|
Win | — | ||
| 13 |
@
Patriots
|
Loss | — | ||
| 14 |
@
 Packers
|
Win | — | ||
| 15 |
vs
 Bears
|
Win | — | ||
| 16 |
@
 Broncos
|
Loss | — | ||
| 17 |
@
Dolphins
|
Win | — | ||
| 18 |
vs
Jets
|
Win | — | ||
Where We Differ From the Market
The closing line is the sharpest public number in sport. Ours is unblended and stands on its own, so the honest thing is to show where the two disagree and what happened last time they did.
About This Rating
Buffalo Bills currently rate 1,608, 6th of 32. The league average is 1500, and 25 rating points equal roughly one point of expected margin — so the gap between this club and an average one is worth about 4.3 points on neutral ground. This figure comes from 2025 results regressed toward the mean, with no offseason adjustment for the draft, free agency, trades or injuries.