Chicago Bears Predictions 2026 — Every Game Called

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Week 8 · Tue 3 Nov

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Our call

35%

Solid · we favour Seahawks

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2026 Engine Projection

Built from our own call on every game of the season — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced.

Projected wins

10.5

of 17 games · 7 already played

Power rating

1,588

8th of 32 · league average 1500

Schedule strength

1,528

2nd toughest of 32 · mean opponent rating

2026 record

5–2

25.7 scored, 20.4 allowed per game

What the projection is. Adding up a win probability for every game gives an expected total, not a forecast of an exact record. A club projected at 10.5 wins lands anywhere from roughly 7 to 14 in a real season — seventeen games is a small sample and luck moves it several wins either way.

Engine Verdict

Every axis is a percentile against the other 31 clubs, computed at page load.

B+

Overall

Bears · 71st percentile

Rating

Strong

Offence

Strong

Defence

Strong

Record

Strong

Schedule ease

Weak

Biggest strength

Record — rated strong against the other 31.

Watch

Defence — still rated strong, simply their lowest-graded department. The hard part is the fixture list: this is one of the league's toughest schedules, which is why the projection is lower than the ratings alone would suggest.

Chicago Bears rate 1,588 on the engine's scale, 8th of 32. The league average is 1500 and 25 points equal about one point of expected margin, so the gap to an average club is worth roughly 3.5 points on neutral ground.

In 2026 they scored 25.7 a game (8th in the league) and allowed 20.4 (9th), finishing 5-2.

Their 17 opponents average 1,528, the 2nd toughest schedule in the league. Strength of schedule is a fact about the fixture list rather than a forecast, so unlike most preseason numbers it is knowable today.

Adding up our win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 10.5 wins. That is an average across many simulated seasons, not a forecast of an exact record — a club projected at 10.5 finishes anywhere from about 7 to 14 in a real one.

Axes come from the power rating, points scored and allowed per game, last season's record and the mean rating of everyone on the schedule. Play-by-play measures — pressure rate, EPA, red-zone efficiency, line play — are not shown because this site does not store them, and a grade with nothing behind it would devalue the four that are real.

NFC North Race

Where this club sits against the three teams it plays twice a year.

Club	Rating	Lg rank	2026	Proj
Vikings	1,652	#3	6–0	—
Bears	1,588	#8	5–2	10.5
Lions	1,556	#13	4–2	—
Packers	1,520	#14	4–3	—

2026 Schedule & Predictions

Every game on the schedule with our call — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced yet. Predictions refresh weekly as ratings move, so a Week 15 call made today will look different by December. Bye weeks are shown where they fall.

Wk	Opponent	Our pick	Prob	Proj	Result
1	@ Panthers	Win	59%	+3.0	59–37 ✓
2	vs Vikings	Win	52%	+0.7	3–9 ✗
3	vs Eagles	Win	52%	+0.5	27–7 ✓
4	vs Jets	Win	78%	+10.1	23–12 ✓
5	@ Packers	Win	61%	+3.7	7–31 ✗
6	@ Falcons	Win	54%	+1.3	31–23 ✓
7	vs Patriots	Loss	45%	-1.5	30–24 ✗
8	@ Seahawks	Loss	35%	-4.9	—
9	vs Buccaneers	Win	68%	+6.1	—
10	Bye week
11	vs Saints	Win	76%	+9.4	—
12	@ Lions	Loss	50%	-0.1	—
13	vs Jaguars	Win	51%	+0.3	—
14	@ Dolphins	Win	72%	+7.5	—
15	@ Bills	Loss	37%	-4.4	—
16	vs Packers	Win	63%	+4.2	—
17	vs Lions	Win	59%	+3.0	—
18	@ Vikings	Loss	38%	-3.9	—

Where We Differ From the Market

The closing line is the sharpest public number in sport. Ours is unblended and stands on its own, so the honest thing is to show where the two disagree and what happened last time they did.

Games with a line

8

of 17 on the schedule

We disagree on

2

25% of priced games pick a different side

Our disagreements lose more than they win. Across 1,139 backtested games, when the engine picked a different side to the closing line it was right 41% of the time — worse than a coin toss. We publish the disagreements anyway, and we publish that record, because presenting them as edge would be selling you the opposite of what the data says. Where we agree with the line, expect the market's accuracy rather than ours.

About This Rating

Chicago Bears currently rate 1,588, 8th of 32. The league average is 1500, and 25 rating points equal roughly one point of expected margin — so the gap between this club and an average one is worth about 3.5 points on neutral ground.

See the full power rankings →