Denver Broncos Predictions 2026 — Every Game Called

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Week 8 · Sun 1 Nov

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Our call

63%

Solid · we favour Broncos

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2026 Engine Projection

Built from our own call on every game of the season — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced.

Projected wins

11.8

of 17 games · 7 already played

Power rating

1,635

5th of 32 · league average 1500

Schedule strength

1,503

13th toughest of 32 · mean opponent rating

2026 record

5–2

20.6 scored, 20.1 allowed per game

What the projection is. Adding up a win probability for every game gives an expected total, not a forecast of an exact record. A club projected at 11.8 wins lands anywhere from roughly 8 to 15 in a real season — seventeen games is a small sample and luck moves it several wins either way.

Engine Verdict

Every axis is a percentile against the other 31 clubs, computed at page load.

B

Overall

Broncos · 69th percentile

Rating

Elite

Offence

Below par

Defence

Strong

Record

Strong

Schedule ease

Below par

Biggest strength

Rating — rated elite against the other 31.

Watch

Offence — their lowest-graded department.

Denver Broncos rate 1,635 on the engine's scale, 5th of 32. The league average is 1500 and 25 points equal about one point of expected margin, so the gap to an average club is worth roughly 5.4 points on neutral ground.

In 2026 they scored 20.6 a game (24th in the league) and allowed 20.1 (7th), finishing 5-2.

Their 17 opponents average 1,503, the 13th toughest schedule in the league. Strength of schedule is a fact about the fixture list rather than a forecast, so unlike most preseason numbers it is knowable today.

Adding up our win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 11.8 wins. That is an average across many simulated seasons, not a forecast of an exact record — a club projected at 11.8 finishes anywhere from about 8 to 15 in a real one.

Axes come from the power rating, points scored and allowed per game, last season's record and the mean rating of everyone on the schedule. Play-by-play measures — pressure rate, EPA, red-zone efficiency, line play — are not shown because this site does not store them, and a grade with nothing behind it would devalue the four that are real.

AFC West Race

Where this club sits against the three teams it plays twice a year.

Club	Rating	Lg rank	2026	Proj
Broncos	1,635	#5	5–2	11.8
Chiefs	1,561	#12	5–1	—
Raiders	1,393	#26	3–4	—
Chargers	1,383	#28	0–6	—

2026 Schedule & Predictions

Every game on the schedule with our call — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced yet. Predictions refresh weekly as ratings move, so a Week 15 call made today will look different by December. Bye weeks are shown where they fall.

Wk	Opponent	Our pick	Prob	Proj	Result
1	@ Chiefs	Win	64%	+4.7	10–31 ✗
2	vs Jaguars	Loss	50%	-0.1	20–13 ✗
3	vs Rams	Win	55%	+1.7	30–26 ✓
4	@ 49ers	Loss	43%	-2.1	14–24 ✓
5	@ Chargers	Win	67%	+5.7	23–17 ✓
6	vs Seahawks	Loss	45%	-1.7	17–14 ✗
7	@ Cardinals	Win	75%	+8.6	30–16 ✓
8	vs Chiefs	Win	63%	+4.4	—
9	@ Panthers	Win	68%	+6.0	—
10	Bye week
11	vs Raiders	Win	82%	+11.8	—
12	@ Steelers	Win	54%	+1.4	—
13	vs Dolphins	Win	83%	+12.4	—
14	@ Jets	Win	76%	+9.3	—
15	@ Raiders	Win	74%	+8.3	—
16	vs Bills	Win	51%	+0.2	—
17	@ Patriots	Loss	50%	-0.0	—
18	vs Chargers	Win	81%	+11.5	—

Where We Differ From the Market

The closing line is the sharpest public number in sport. Ours is unblended and stands on its own, so the honest thing is to show where the two disagree and what happened last time they did.

Games with a line

8

of 17 on the schedule

We disagree on

4

50% of priced games pick a different side

Our disagreements lose more than they win. Across 1,139 backtested games, when the engine picked a different side to the closing line it was right 41% of the time — worse than a coin toss. We publish the disagreements anyway, and we publish that record, because presenting them as edge would be selling you the opposite of what the data says. Where we agree with the line, expect the market's accuracy rather than ours.

About This Rating

Denver Broncos currently rate 1,635, 5th of 32. The league average is 1500, and 25 rating points equal roughly one point of expected margin — so the gap between this club and an average one is worth about 5.4 points on neutral ground.

See the full power rankings →