Washington Commanders Predictions 2026 — Every Game Called

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Week 8 · Mon 2 Nov

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Our call

54%

Coin Flip · we favour Commanders

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2026 Engine Projection

Built from our own call on every game of the season — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced.

Projected wins

5.8

of 17 games · 6 already played

Power rating

1,393

27th of 32 · league average 1500

Schedule strength

1,498

18th toughest of 32 · mean opponent rating

2026 record

1–4–1

22.0 scored, 28.7 allowed per game

What the projection is. Adding up a win probability for every game gives an expected total, not a forecast of an exact record. A club projected at 5.8 wins lands anywhere from roughly 2 to 9 in a real season — seventeen games is a small sample and luck moves it several wins either way.

Why it does not match the table below. The schedule shows an outright call on every game, and on that basis we pick Commanders to win 2. The projection is higher because 4 of their games sit between 40% and 49% — near-coin-flips that show as a loss in a yes-or-no column but still contribute most of a win each to the expectation. The projection counts those fractions; the table cannot.

Engine Verdict

Every axis is a percentile against the other 31 clubs, computed at page load.

D+

Overall

Commanders · 21st percentile

Rating

Weak

Offence

Below par

Defence

Weak

Record

Weak

Schedule ease

Average

Best of a poor set

Offence — rated below par against the other 31, and it is the highest they grade anywhere.

Watch

Defence — their lowest-graded department.

Washington Commanders rate 1,393 on the engine's scale, 27th of 32. The league average is 1500 and 25 points equal about one point of expected margin, so the gap to an average club is worth roughly 4.3 points on neutral ground.

In 2026 they scored 22.0 a game (20th in the league) and allowed 28.7 (31st), finishing 1-4-1.

Their 17 opponents average 1,498, the 18th toughest schedule in the league. Strength of schedule is a fact about the fixture list rather than a forecast, so unlike most preseason numbers it is knowable today.

Adding up our win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 5.8 wins. That is an average across many simulated seasons, not a forecast of an exact record — a club projected at 5.8 finishes anywhere from about 2 to 9 in a real one.

Axes come from the power rating, points scored and allowed per game, last season's record and the mean rating of everyone on the schedule. Play-by-play measures — pressure rate, EPA, red-zone efficiency, line play — are not shown because this site does not store them, and a grade with nothing behind it would devalue the four that are real.

NFC East Race

Where this club sits against the three teams it plays twice a year.

Club	Rating	Lg rank	2026	Proj
Giants	1,465	#20	4–2–1	—
Cowboys	1,458	#21	3–4	—
Eagles	1,417	#23	2–5	—
Commanders	1,393	#27	1–4–1	5.8

2026 Schedule & Predictions

Every game on the schedule with our call — including the ones months out that no bookmaker has priced yet. Predictions refresh weekly as ratings move, so a Week 15 call made today will look different by December. Bye weeks are shown where they fall.

Wk	Opponent	Our pick	Prob	Proj	Result
1	@ Eagles	Loss	34%	-5.2	22–24 ✓
2	@ Cowboys	Loss	49%	-0.4	20–37 ✓
3	vs Seahawks	Loss	20%	-11.2	33–31 ✗
4	vs Colts	Loss	50%	-0.0	13–30 ✓
5	vs Giants	Loss	46%	-1.3	27–27
6	@ 49ers	Loss	17%	-12.5	17–23 ✓
7	Bye week
8	vs Eagles	Win	54%	+1.2	—
9	vs Rams	Loss	33%	-5.8	—
10	@ Giants	Loss	37%	-4.3	—
11	vs Bengals	Loss	34%	-5.4	—
12	@ Cardinals	Loss	49%	-0.3	—
13	@ Titans	Win	57%	+2.5	—
14	vs Texans	Loss	41%	-3.0	—
15	vs Falcons	Loss	42%	-2.6	—
16	@ Vikings	Loss	18%	-11.7	—
17	@ Jaguars	Loss	21%	-10.6	—
18	vs Cowboys	Loss	46%	-1.2	—

Where We Differ From the Market

The closing line is the sharpest public number in sport. Ours is unblended and stands on its own, so the honest thing is to show where the two disagree and what happened last time they did. Books price about a week ahead, so most of this schedule has no line yet and this section fills out as the season runs.

Games with a line

7

of 17 on the schedule

We disagree on

1

of the 7 priced so far · too few for a percentage

Our disagreements lose more than they win. Across 1,139 backtested games, when the engine picked a different side to the closing line it was right 41% of the time — worse than a coin toss. We publish the disagreements anyway, and we publish that record, because presenting them as edge would be selling you the opposite of what the data says. Where we agree with the line, expect the market's accuracy rather than ours.

About This Rating

Washington Commanders currently rate 1,393, 27th of 32. The league average is 1500, and 25 rating points equal roughly one point of expected margin — so the gap between this club and an average one is worth about 4.3 points on neutral ground.

See the full power rankings →