Riga Predictions

Vardar Skopje turned this tie on its head in extra time, storming back from a 2-1 deficit to win 4-1 on the night and progress 5-5 on aggregate before winning on away goals. It was a stunning collapse from Riga after they'd clawed themselves level, but the real damage came early when Vardar went ahead through Babunski in the 17th minute after a pass from Puleio. Then came the moment that shifted everything: Najdovski's red card in the 19th minute left Vardar down to ten men, yet they extended their lead to 2-0 when Omeragic scored in the 66th. Riga looked dead and buried, but they found something from nowhere. Taiwo pulled one back in the 87th, and then Aouani levelled it with five minutes left on the clock. The match went to extra time, and that's where Riga's resistance finally crumbled. Iago Siqueira made it 3-2 in the 105th minute, Reginaldo Ramires added a fourth in the 109th, and Caio Ferreira sealed it in the 117th after being set up by Tonisevs.

Our model predicted a 2-0 win for Riga and gave them a 64% chance of victory overall, which meant a Vardar win was a 16% lean—plausible but far from the central case. The match didn't play out that way. Vardar's early breakthrough and their ability to hold on despite the red card changed the dynamic completely. Riga's fightback in normal time showed real character, but they couldn't sustain it through extra time. Sometimes a team down to ten men finds a way, and sometimes a team that needs only a draw loses the plot. This was both.

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