📊 Recent Form
Benevento
Catanzaro
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Benevento at 55%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento Win | 4/6 1.68 | 56% | 55% | -1% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.15 | 23% | 24% | +1% |
| Catanzaro Win | 10/3 4.37 | 21% | 21% | ±0% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Benevento mid-table (P5) — low motivation
- 🆘 Catanzaro in relegation danger (P20/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Benevento xG 1.97 | Catanzaro xG 0.88
Projected: 59% / 23% / 18%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
