📊 Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus
Modena
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Modena edge it at 44% against 28% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicenza Virtus Win | 9/4 3.26 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.58 | 26% | 28% | +2% |
| Modena Win | 11/10 2.06 | 46% | 44% | -2% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Vicenza Virtus mid-table (P12) — low motivation
- 🎯 Modena chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Vicenza Virtus xG 0.95 | Modena xG 1.95
Projected: 15% / 31% / 54%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
