Cesena vs Empoli — Prediction & Analysis

Fixtures › Serie B

Serie B Tue 27 Oct 2026

Cesena Home

1–1

Predicted

Empoli Away

Draw Low · 35%

CleverScores Prediction

1 – 1

Draw Low · 35%

Cesena

40%

Draw

31%

Empoli

29%

📊 Recent Form

Cesena

DDWDLD

1W · 4D · 1L 1.17 pts/game

Empoli

LWLWDD

2W · 2D · 2L 1.33 pts/game

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — the same form the engine used when it priced this fixture.

🧭 How the Model Sees It

Nothing here clears 41%. Cesena edge it at 40% against 31% for the draw and 29% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.

Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Cesena. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.

We have Cesena at 40% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 46% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.

The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.

Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.

Built from the figures above — no separate commentary, so it cannot drift out of step with them. 8th Day Engine · 2026.08.25

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Cesena Win	1/1 2.01	46%	40%	-6%
Draw	5/2 3.50	27%	31%	+4%
Empoli Win	5/2 3.50	27%	29%	+2%

No value markets in this fixture — our model and the bookmakers broadly agree on the 1X2 outcome.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

⚡ Stakes & Context

🆘 Cesena in relegation danger (P15, only 2 pt cushion)
🆘 Empoli in relegation danger (P16, only 1 pt cushion)

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Cesena xG 1.39 | Empoli xG 1.35
Projected: 35% / 35% / 30%
H2H: 1W-2D-4L
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.

⚔️ Head to Head

1W-2D-4L for Cesena in H2H

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.

Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.

CleverScore confidence: 35/99 · Low

Predictions are modelled estimates built from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org