📊 Recent Form
Virtus Entella
Avellino
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. Virtus Entella edge it at 38% against 36% for the draw and 26% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–1 points to a draw while the probabilities favour Virtus Entella. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Virtus Entella at 38% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 47% — a gap against us of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella Win | 1/1 2.00 | 47% | 38% | -9% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 36% | +7% |
| Avellino Win | 11/4 3.78 | 24% | 26% | +2% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Virtus Entella mid-table (P11) — low motivation
- 😴 Avellino mid-table (P8) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Virtus Entella xG 1.2 | Avellino xG 1.39
Projected: 31% / 43% / 26%
H2H: 1W-4D-2L
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
1W-4D-2L for Virtus Entella in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
