Patriots at Jaguars
Result & Grading
Published before kickoff, graded after. No edits, no quiet deletions.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
From the engine's power ratings, adjusted for home field and rest, then mapped through the margin distribution. Not a blend of the market — this is our own number.
Engine vs The Line
We disagree with the market here. Worth knowing: across 1,139 backtested games our disagreements were right 41% of the time. We publish them regardless — and we publish how they land.
Matchup Facts
Venue and rest come from the schedule feed and feed directly into the model; surface and weather are context we show but don't yet model.
Recent Form
Last five completed games this season, most recent first.
New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars
Season Scoring
Points per game either side of the ball, 2026 season to date.
How The Model Sees It
Our rating has New England Patriots as the stronger side by 50 rating points, which on its own is worth about 2.0 points on the scoreboard (NE 1,628, JAX 1,578).
Home field adds 1.4 points to JAX — a measured figure from our backtest, not the traditional three, because home advantage in the modern NFL is considerably smaller than it used to be.
That lands on a projected margin of -0.6, and running that through the historical spread of actual results against projections gives New England Patriots at 52%.
The market disagrees. The closing line makes Jacksonville Jaguars the favourite by 3.0. Our engine sees only results — it has no view on injuries, roster changes or who a team has signed. When we split from the line, history says we're wrong more often than right, and we show you that rather than dressing the disagreement up as an edge.
More From Week 3
Next Up Elsewhere
Other games already through the engine.
Recently Graded
Called before kickoff, scored after — hits and misses both.
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