NFL 2026 · 8th Day Engine
Week 4 Predictions
1 Oct – 5 Oct 2026 · 16 games · 16 predicted
11/16 correct this week · every miss counted
Where We Break From The Line
Week 4: we disagree on 2 games
Across 1,139 backtested games our disagreements with the closing line were right 41% of the time. We publish them regardless — and we publish how they land.
Every Week 4 Game
Published before kickoff · graded after
PIT
24
@
CLE
27
PIT 56%
CLE 44%
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
56%
Total 42.9 Lean
Line
PIT −2.5
✗ Missed
IND
30
@
WAS
13
IND 50%
WAS 50%
Indianapolis Colts to win
50%
Total 49.1 Coin Flip
Line
IND −3.5
✓ Correct
ARI
24
@
NYG
36
ARI 41%
NYG 59%
New York Giants to win
59%
Total 47.9 Lean
Line
ARI −1.5
We differ
✓ Correct
DAL
34
@
HOU
30
DAL 36%
HOU 64%
Houston Texans to win
64%
Total 49.2 Solid
Line
HOU −2.5
✗ Missed
GB
17
@
TB
14
GB 52%
TB 48%
Green Bay Packers to win
52%
Total 45.9 Coin Flip
Line
GB −3.5
✓ Correct
JAX
22
@
CIN
17
JAX 57%
CIN 43%
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
57%
Total 48.9 Lean
Line
CIN −2.5
We differ
✓ Correct
LAR
24
@
PHI
20
LAR 52%
PHI 48%
Los Angeles Rams to win
52%
Total 46.1 Coin Flip
Line
LAR −2.5
✓ Correct
NE
29
@
BUF
26
NE 36%
BUF 64%
Buffalo Bills to win
64%
Total 46.3 Solid
Line
BUF −7.0
✗ Missed
NYJ
12
@
CHI
23
NYJ 22%
CHI 78%
Chicago Bears to win
78%
Total 46.5 Strong
Line
CHI −3.0
✓ Correct
TEN
18
@
BAL
24
TEN 19%
BAL 81%
Baltimore Ravens to win
81%
Total 44.7 Strong
Line
BAL −11.5
✓ Correct
MIA
10
@
MIN
15
MIA 18%
MIN 82%
Minnesota Vikings to win
82%
Total 42.5 Strong
Line
MIN −10.5
✓ Correct
DEN
14
@
SF
24
DEN 43%
SF 57%
San Francisco 49ers to win
57%
Total 45.9 Lean
Line
SF −3.0
✓ Correct
KC
30
@
LV
27
KC 58%
LV 42%
Kansas City Chiefs to win
58%
Total 42.7 Lean
Line
KC −4.5
✓ Correct
LAC
23
@
SEA
30
LAC 17%
SEA 83%
Seattle Seahawks to win
83%
Total 43.7 Strong
Line
SEA −7.0
✓ Correct
DET
26
@
CAR
32
DET 59%
CAR 41%
Detroit Lions to win
59%
Total 47.9 Lean
Line
DET −3.5
✗ Missed
ATL
45
@
NO
24
ATL 48%
NO 52%
New Orleans Saints to win
52%
Total 44.5 Coin Flip
Line
NO −3.0
✗ Missed